The Boston Red Sox trade for Tyler O’Neill proved to be one of the shrewdest moves of the past offseason. Acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals for since designated for assignment reliever Nick Robertson and minor league pitcher Victor Santos, O’Neill slashed .241/.336/.511 in 473 plate appearances for the Red Sox in 2024, hitting 31 home runs and accumulating 2.7 bWAR.
Now, the 29-year-old outfielder enters free agency with his value significantly rebuilt after bouncing back from consecutive disappointing seasons with the second-best year of his career. Where will he land once the market opens 5 days following the conclusion of the World Series? BetMassachusetts.com exercised its Massachusetts sports betting expertise and created hypothetical odds to predict where O’Neill will play in 2025. Meet his prime potential suitors:
Tyler O’Neill Next Team Odds
Team | Odds | Percent Chance |
Boston Red Sox | +325 | 23.6% |
Toronto Blue Jays | +650 | 13.3% |
Houston Astros | +900 | 10.0% |
Chicago Cubs | +900 | 10.0% |
Seattle Mariners | +1100 | 8.3% |
Kansas City Royals | +1200 | 7.7% |
Atlanta Braves | +1200 | 7.7% |
The Field | +400 | 20.0% |
The odds above are exclusive to BetMassachusetts.com and are unavailable on Massachusetts sports betting apps.
As it stands, the most logical conclusion to O’Neill’s free agency saga ends with him back in Boston. O’Neill teamed up with breakout star Jarren Duran to give the Red Sox the most valuable leftfield unit in baseball by bWAR, while filling in as needed in rightfield too. O’Neill also crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of an 1.180 OPS this season, slugging 16 homers off of southpaws, tied with Aaron Judge for the second most in the majors behind Ketel Marte.
Boston cannot easily replace that level of production, especially given the left-handed heavy nature of its lineup headlined by Duran and Rafael Devers. Top prospect Roman Anthony should join the outfield rotation next year, but he too hits lefty, maintaining the necessity of O’Neill’s right-handed bat for balance.
If O'Neill Doesn't Return To Boston
Should O’Neill leave the Boston Red Sox, an AL East rival could offer the perfect fit for him. The Toronto Blue Jays finished last in the ever-challenging division this season, going just 74-88, but want to attempt to compete next year in Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s final season before free agent eligibility. Defensive stud Daulton Varsho and four-time All-Star George Springer look penciled into two of Toronto’s starting outfield spots for 2025, but the team needs an upgrade at the final position after regular leftfielder Davis Schneider hit just .191/.282/.343 this year. The Blue Jays also struggled mightily against lefties in 2024, OPSing just .652 versus them, MLB’s third worst mark. Adding O’Neill would address both issues without breaking the bank for a team that spent almost $235 million this year but has hinted they do not want to increase payroll.
Outside of the AL East, a pair of big market clubs might make sense for O’Neill. The Houston Astros slashed .741 as a team this season but struggled to find consistency from their left fielders. Yordan Alvarez can cover the position, however, he is more comfortable as a designated hitter, leaving Mauricio Dubón as the other top option on the roster. Dubón recorded an OPS of just .657 this year, more than 50 points below the league average and the second-worst number among Astros’ regulars. Houston could also lose mainstay Alex Bregman to free agency, leaving another hole in the lineup. O’Neill’s bat would enhance the Astros’ outfield while insulating the team from a potential Bregman departure as they eye a ninth consecutive postseason berth next year.
The other major market suitor, the Chicago Cubs are in an interesting position heading into this offseason. Chicago finished 83-79 for a second straight season but possesses a lineup full of players who project as above-average regulars moving forward. The Cubs also control a league-high eight prospects ranked in the top 100 by MLB.com. That leaves them open to creative ways to improve the roster, suggesting a move for a superstar could be on the horizon. Should the team try to consolidate their talent in a trade for a ceiling raiser, O’Neill could be signed in conjunction to replace any depth lost in a deal. His right-handed pop would be a welcome addition to a team that ranked tied for 20th in home runs in 2024 with 170, only 36 of which came against lefties.
If geography comes into consideration for O’Neill’s free agency decision, keep an eye on the Seattle Mariners as a serious player for him. The Mariners, who originally drafted O’Neill out of high school back in 2013, are by far the closest team to his hometown of Burnaby, British Columbia. Seattle added Randy Arozarena from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline to play leftfield but could stand to upgrade in right as Mitch Haniger posted an OPS of only .620 manning that spot this season. The Mariners allowed just 607 runs, tied with Atlanta for the fewest in the majors, but missed the playoffs because their offense was not effective enough. Signing O’Neill would certainly try to rectify that as Seattle attempts to supplement its elite young pitching corps.
A couple of playoff teams in need of an offensive punch-up could also look to bring O’Neill into the fold. The Kansas City Royals qualified for the postseason this year for the first time since their 2015 World Series title but could use some more length to their lineup behind Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. Royals’ left fielders slashed just .636 this year, the fourth worst mark in baseball, with no outfielder on the team eclipsing an OPS of .700. In total, Kansas City’s outfielders combined to post only 1.0 bWAR in 2024, over three times less WAR than the next worst playoff team received from their outfielders. O’Neill would instantly improve that situation while giving the Royals a power threat they have lacked for years in the outfield (the last Kansas City primary outfielder to hit 30 or more home runs like O’Neill did this season was Jermaine Dye back in 2000).
The Atlanta Braves left fielders did not fare much better than their counterparts in Kansas City this year. Eight different players earned plate appearances in left for Atlanta, combining for a meager .642 OPS. Overall, the Braves outfield finished 22nd in outfielder bWAR, with the leftfield spot providing sub-replacement level value. The outfield as a whole should substantially improve next season with the return of 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., but that does not address the leftfield problem. O’Neill would bolster that spot while offering an Acuña insurance policy in the other corner, something Atlanta had to procure via trade both this year and when he was previously injured in 2021.
Much to the dismay of Red Sox nation, one team from the field to watch out for with O’Neill is the New York Yankees. Yankees’ leftfielders recorded a .652 OPS this year and starter Alex Verdugo does not look likely to re-sign as he heads into free agency himself. New York has star prospect Jasson Domínguez waiting in the wings, but Juan Soto could also potentially leave. Depending on what shakes out, O’Neill could fill a crucial role for the Yankees as their outfield reconfigures around Aaron Judge.
Other teams that received poor performances from their left fielders/corner outfielders and could be fitting for O’Neill include the Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds, and Colorado Rockies.
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Author
Josh Markowitz is a freelance writer for BetMassachusetts.com. He is a lifelong sports fan with an emphasis on basketball, football, baseball, and the scouting/evaluation process. A graduate of Elon University's School of Communications, Josh also has experience in television production.
