How Do MLB All Star MVPs Perform After All Star Break?

The first Boston Red Sox player to take home the All-Star Game MVP award in 16 years has a bona fide shot at bringing the first regular season MVP honor to Beantown since Dustin Pedroia in 2008. That’s because 27-year-old outfielder Jarren Duran stole the show in Tuesday’s MLB All-Star Game, belting a monstrous home run off Cincinnati Reds pitcher Hunter Greene to spearhead a 5-3 victory in Dallas.

In doing so, Duran became the first Red Sox player since J.D. Drew in 2008 to take home the honor, serving as the latest accolade in a career that’s included a bronze medal in the 2023 World Baseball Classic as a member of Team Mexico and a host of other on-field accolades. Duran enters the second half of the MLB season with 5.0 WAR to his name, ranking in a tie with Juan Soto of the New York Yankees for fifth in the majors, while holding +15000 MVP odds on DraftKings Massachusetts, ranking well behind Aaron Judge (-310), Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles (+250) and Soto (+1500).

Utilizing Baseball-Reference.com, we found the batting splits of the last 10 All Star MVPs (who were batters) both prior and after the All Star break to see how they ended up.

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Performance of MLB All Star MVPS After Break

Situation	Number of Players	Percentage
Drop In Batting Average	8 of 10	80%
Drop In On-Base %	8 of 10	80%
Drop In Slugging %	10 of 10	100%
Drop In OPS	10 of 10	100%

* There was no ASG in 2020; Pitchers Shane Bieber and Mariano Rivera won MVP in 2019 and 2013, respectively.

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Can Duran Flip Script in 2024?

Since 2014, the ASG MVP has seen a drop in batting average and on-base percentage eight times, with Robinson Cano (+.011) and Prince Fielder (+.004) being the exceptions in both camps.

All 10 of the MVPs at the Mid-Summer Classic have seen a drop in slugging percentage and OPS, which speaks to just how difficult it is to keep at an All-Star pace through the course of a 162-game gauntlet of a regular season.

For Duran, the goal right now is likely to finish off a full season for the first time as a big leaguer, as the 27-year-old is seven games shy of last year’s total in terms of games played, with 67 games to play in the Red Sox’s 2024 season.

The up-and-coming outfielder would also likely highlight his desire to reach the postseason in 2024, which could be a challenge as Fangraphs currently gives Boston the hardest remaining schedule in MLB.

That road to redemption for Duran and company begins in earnest on Friday, when Boston heads to Los Angeles to face the NL West-leading Dodgers at Chavez Ravine for three games against one of the best teams in the majors.

USA Today photo by Kevin Jairaj.

Author

Christopher Boan

@cgboan

Christopher Boan has been covering sports and sports betting for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.