Drake Maye’s Future: How Do 1st Round QBs Do When Sitting First Career NFL Game?

The third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft will be on the sidelines for Patriots vs Bengals Week 1, as former UNC gunslinger Drake Maye will open the season backing up journeyman Jacoby Brissett to start the year.

Maye posted video game-like stats in Chapel Hill between 2021 and 2023, with 8,018 passing yards and 63 touchdowns (to 16 interceptions) with a QB rating of 154.1 in 30 starts with the Tar Heels.

Now, the 21-year-old out of the Charlotte area will learn the ropes from Brissett and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt before seeing the field at somepoint down the line.

While oddsmakers aren’t flying high on New England Patriots playoff chances in 2024, it’s worth wondering how quarterbacks that were taken in the first round of the NFL Draft have performed, both among those that won the starting gig in Week 1 of their rookie campaigns and those that sat out said contests.

NFL Rookie QBs That Played First Game Vs. That Did Not

Situation (2010-2020 NFL Drafts)	Average Career Value*
First Round QB Played In First Career NFL Game	54.9
First Round QB Did Not Play In First Career NFL Game	37.9

*Weighted Approximate Value from Pro Football Reference

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How NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Have Fared

Of the 13 first-round picks at QB to start Week 1 of their rookie seasons, the highlights include former St. Louis Rams first overall pick Sam Bradford, who finished his 83 game NFL run with an approximate value of 49, while fellow first rounders like Cam Newton (140 AV in 148 NFL games), Andrew Luck (80 AV in 86 NFL games), Robert Griffin III (38 AV in 56 games), Ryan Tannehill (114 AV in 155 NFL games), Carson Wentz (68 AV in 95 NFL games), Deshaun Watson (63 AV in 66 games), Kyler Murray (62 AV in 65 games) and Joe Burrow (47 AV in 52 games) stand among the success stories to varying degrees.

Conversely, first round picks since 2010 that did not start in Week 1 include Heisman Trophy winners-turned-washouts like Tim Tebow (12 AV in 35 games) and Johnny Manziel (4 AV in 14 games), but also NFL MVPs like Patrick Mahomes (109 AV in 96 games) and Lamar Jackson (93 AV in 86 games).

Throw in MVP candidates across MA betting apps like Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills (92 AV in 94 games), Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions (95 AV in 117 games), Justin Herbert (56 AV in 62 games), Tua Tagovailoa (40 AV in 53 games) and Jordan Love (18 AV in 27 games) and you have a compelling argument for sitting your first-round pick at QB in that year’s season opener.

All told, the average AV of the 13 quarterbacks that started Week 1 of their respective rookie seasons in the NFL (54.9) outweighs the total of players that sat out that opening game of the regular season (37.9) since 2010, giving some food for thought as the Patriots prepare for Burrow and the Bengals on Sept. 8.

USA Today photo by Tommy Gilligan.

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Author

Christopher Boan

@cgboan

Christopher Boan has been covering sports and sports betting for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.