There are few milestones as sacrosanct as the 3,000-hit club in baseball, with only 33 members in the group.
Detroit Tigers DH Miguel Cabrera became the latest member in 2022, leaving many to ponder who has the best shot at reaching the figure next.
One contender to become the 34th member somewhere down the line is Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers, based on the 26-year-old Dominican Republic native’s performance to-date.
Devers, who should garner MVP odds once Massachusetts sports betting launches, has collected 762 hits, 139 home runs, and 455 RBI through 689 games in Boston, averaging out to 127 hits per season for the Red Sox.
The 26-year-old is also currently available at +4200 to lead the league in home runs on FanDuel Sportsbook Massachusetts.
If we throw out the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, in which Devers collected 61 hits in 57 games, then the Sox third baseman has averaged 140.2 hits per 162-game season in his six-year career.
By that metric, Devers would need to play 21.4 MLB seasons to reach 3,000 hits, which would require him to make it through his age-41 season.
While not impossible, it would be a tough hill for Devers to climb to join Cabrera and the 33 other MLB legends who are members of the 3,000-hit club down the line.
BetMassachusetts.com utilized ZIPs Projection on FanGraphs.com and past trends of 3,000-hit players at each age to determine the possibility of Devers becoming the 34th player to accomplish the feat.
Odds of Joining The 3,000 Hit Club
What Are Rafael Devers’ Odds of Reaching 3,000 Hits?
Of the four players that BetMassachusetts.com surveyed, Devers has the longest odds of reaching 3,000 hits for his career, at +9900.
That’s largely because of Devers age (26) and the sheer number of hits that he’d have to collect to reach the figure (2,238).
If Devers is able to continue at the pace he’s put forth in his last three 162-game seasons (176.7 hits per season), then he’d have to play 12 more seasons to reach the 3,000-hit club.
That scenario would require Devers to avoid time-consuming injuries and other setbacks that often belie Major Leaguers.
It’s worth monitoring whether the two-time All-Star will have extra motivation to up his production in the year ahead, as 2023 will be Devers’ final season before hitting the free agency market for the first time.
Devers was reportedly offered a contract extension in the ballpark of the eight-year, $168 million that the Atlanta Braves offered Matt Olson, according to the Boston Globe, but turned it down.
That “bet on yourself” mentality could result in Devers upping his year-end hits total from the 164.5 average he’s put up in the past two seasons, which might help him get a leg up in his quest for 3,000 hits.
For now, Devers and the Red Sox are bound together for at least one more season, as the Dominican Republic native looks to get a step closer to joining the best in the game as a member of the 3,000-hit club.
But here at BetMassachusetts, we wouldn't love his odds across MA sports betting apps.
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